Preliminary study on a predict model for patients with cholecystolithiasis combined with common bile duct stones        WU Zong-yang, ZHENG Xin ,ZAN Xian-feng,LIU Qing-guang. Hepatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University ，Xi'an 710061，China
Corresponding author: LIU Qing-guang, E-mail：liuqingguang@vip.sina.com
Abstract    Objective    To develop a predictive equation with the factors previously identified by multivariate Logistic regression that were predictive for cholecystolithiasis combined with common bile duct stones ,Evaluate the diagnostic value of predictive equation,ultrasound and MRCP.Methods    Make database with the index of 626 patients and select the variables that considered statistically significant for the Logistic equation.The sensitivity、specificity and accuracy of Logistic regression equation, ultrasound and MRCP are compared by χ2 test.Results    P=1/1+EXP［-(-5.092 +3.101X1+1.754X2+1.647X3+1.306X4+1.175X5+ 0.963X6)］,The equation has a sensitivity of 69.5% , specificity of 97.1% , and accuracy of 92.5%.The sensitivity and accuracy of MRCP and Logistic regression equation are superior than ultrasound (P<0.05), The sensitivity of MRCP are superior than Logistic regression equation (P<0.05). The accuracy of MRCP and Logistic regression equation have no difference(P>0.05).The specificity of three methods have no difference(P>0.05).Conclusion    The specificity and accuracy of Logistic regression equation is superior than ultrasound, it could provide reference for clinical diagnosis and treatment decision making for doctors.