Development and validation of a predictive model for postoperative hospitalization probability in pancreatic trauma

ZHANG Ning, NAN Bo, BAI Yun-hu, GONG Cheng-rong, WANG Ya-yun, YANG Yan-ling

Chinese Journal of Practical Surgery ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (11) : 1309-1316.

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Chinese Journal of Practical Surgery ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (11) : 1309-1316. DOI: 10.19538/j.cjps.issn1005-2208.2025.11.19

Development and validation of a predictive model for postoperative hospitalization probability in pancreatic trauma

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Abstract

Objective To investigate the risk factors affecting clinical outcomes after pancreatic trauma surgery and to develop a model for predicting the probability of prolonged hospitalization. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on the medical records of 76 patients with pancreatic trauma who underwent surgical treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University between December 2009 and December 2024. The median length of hospital stay (LOS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were subsequently employed to identify independent predictors, based on which a nomogram was constructed. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve area (tdAUC) and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model’s discrimination and calibration, respectively, at different time points. Results The median LOS for all patients was 15 (95%CI 13-27) d. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified AAST grade Ⅳ/Ⅴ (HR=0.473, 95%CI 0.257-0.870, P=0.016) and combined hollow viscus rupture (HR=0.421, 95%CI 0.196-0.904, P=0.026) as independent risk factors for recovery and discharge. Conversely, serum albumin (ALB) level was an independent protective factor (HR=1.061, 95%CI 1.013-1.110, P=0.011). A nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of remaining hospitalized at 15, 30, and 40 days postoperatively. The time-dependent area under the curve (tdAUC) values for these time points were 0.860 (95%CI 0.771-0.948), 0.837 (95%CI 0.727-0.948), and 0.762 (95%CI 0.581-0.944), respectively. Internal validation with 1,000 bootstrap resamples demonstrated good agreement between the nomogram’s predictions and actual observations, as shown by the calibration curves. The optimal cut-off value for the nomogram score was determined to be 87.8. Conclusion The nomogram, incorporating AAST classification, presence or absence of hollow viscus rupture, and ALB level, can early and reliably predict the hospitalization probability of patients at different postoperative time points, facilitating early risk stratification. It helps clinicians identify patients at high risk for delayed discharge and provides a reference basis for postoperative refined management and optimal allocation of healthcare resources.

Key words

pancreatic trauma / surgical treatment / hospitalization probability / predictive factors / nomogram prediction model

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ZHANG Ning , NAN Bo , BAI Yun-hu , et al . Development and validation of a predictive model for postoperative hospitalization probability in pancreatic trauma[J]. Chinese Journal of Practical Surgery. 2025, 45(11): 1309-1316 https://doi.org/10.19538/j.cjps.issn1005-2208.2025.11.19

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Pancreatic injuries are rare, difficult to diagnose, and complex to manage despite multiple published guidelines. This study was undertaken to evaluate the current diagnosis and management of pancreatic trauma in Canadian trauma centers.This is a multi-institutional retrospective study from 2009 to 2014 including patients from eight level 1 trauma centers across Canada. All patients with a diagnosis of pancreatic trauma were included. Demographics, injury characteristics, vital signs on admission, and type of management were collected. Outcomes measured were mortality and pancreas-related morbidity.Two hundred seventy-nine patients were included. The median age was 29 years (interquartile range, 21-43 years), 72% were male, and 79% sustained blunt trauma. Pancreatic injury included the following grades: I, 26%; II, 28%; III, 33%; IV, 9%; and V, 4%. The overall mortality rate was 11%, and the pancreas-related complication rate was 25%. The majority (88%) of injuries were diagnosed within 24 hours of injury, primarily (80%) with a computed tomography scan. The remaining injuries were diagnosed with ultrasound (6%) and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) (2%) and at the time of laparotomy or autopsy (12%). One hundred seventy-five patients (63%) underwent an operative intervention, most commonly a distal pancreatectomy (44%); however, there was great variability in operative procedure chosen even when considering grade of injury.Pancreatic injuries are associated with multiple other injuries and have significant morbidity and mortality. Their management demonstrates significant practice variation within a national trauma system.Therapeutic/care management, level V; Prognostic and epidemiological, level IV.Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Surgical patients can be discharged to a variety of facilities which vary widely in intensity of care. Postoperative readmissions have been found to be more strongly associated with post-discharge events than pre-discharge complications, indicating the importance of discharge destination. We sought to evaluate the association between discharge destination and 30-day outcomes. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database. Patients were dichotomized based on discharge destination: home versus non-home. The main outcome of interest was 30-day unplanned readmission. The secondary outcomes included post-discharge pulmonary, infectious, thromboembolic, and bleeding complications, as well as death. In this cohort study of over 1.5 million patients undergoing common surgical procedures across eight surgical specialties, we found non-home discharge to be associated with adverse 30-day post-operative outcomes, namely, unplanned readmissions, post-discharge pulmonary, infectious, thromboembolic, and bleeding complications, as well as death. Non-home discharge is associated with worse 30-day outcomes among patients undergoing common surgical procedures. Patients and caregivers should be counseled regarding discharge destination, as non-home discharge is associated with adverse post-operative outcomes.

Funding

Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province(2024JC-ZDXM-60)
Xijing Hospital Promotion Fund(XJZT2025KX01)
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