PDF(1764 KB)
1990—2021年中国女性盆腔器官脱垂疾病负担分析及趋势预测
张秋泉, 龙熙翠, 周江洪, 杨丽娟, 金文娇, 韩雪松
中国实用妇科与产科杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3) : 366-371.
PDF(1764 KB)
PDF(1764 KB)
1990—2021年中国女性盆腔器官脱垂疾病负担分析及趋势预测
1990—2021 Burden analysis and trend prediction of pelvic organ prolapse among women in China
目的 分析1990—2021年中国女性盆腔器官脱垂（POP）的疾病负担变化，并预测2022—2050年POP的发展趋势，为POP防控提供依据。方法 基于2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）数据，应用分段线性回归模型、年龄-时期-队列模型及贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型等进行分析与预测。结果 2021年，中国POP的患病、发病、死亡例数分别为18 373 454.61例（95%UI 15 160 906.47~21 882 626.23）、2 180 815.93例（95%UI 1 782 064.46~2 594 003.65）、28例（95%UI 6.91~40.64），伤残调整寿命年（DALYs）为56 703.36人年（95%UI 27 545.04~107 644.14）。其中，患病、发病、死亡例数以及DALYs的峰值分别出现在55~59岁、50~54岁、85~89岁、55~59岁年龄组。1990—2021年间，年龄标准化患病率、发病率和DALYs率均呈下降趋势；但受人口老龄化影响，患病、发病例数和DALYs呈上升趋势；进一步分析发现，年龄、时期和出生队列效应对发病和DALYs均有影响。预计到2050年，各年龄组的年龄标准化率将普遍持续下降，但疾病负担的绝对数将呈现明显的年龄分化趋势：60岁以下人群逐渐减少，60~69岁人群先增加后减少，而70岁以上人群将持续增加。结论 中国的POP防控已取得了一定成效，但疾病负担在老年群体中仍然较重。未来伴随人口老龄化，60岁以上人群的疾病负担将进一步加重。
Objective To analyze changes in the disease burden of pelvic organ prolapse （POP） among women in China from 1990 to 2021， and to project its trend from 2022 to 2050， so as to provide evidence for POP prevention and control.Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease （GBD） 2021， we employed segmented linear regression models， age-period-cohort models， and bayesian age-period-cohort （BAPC） models for analysis and projection.Results In 2021， the number of prevalent， incident， and mortality cases of POP in China were 18，373，454.61（95%UI 15 160 906.47 to 21 882 626.23）， 2 180 815.93（95%UI 1 782 064.46 to 2 594，003.65）， and 28（95%UI 6.91 to 40.64）， respectively. The disability-adjusted life years （DALYs） amounted to 56 703.36 person-years （95%UI 27 545.04 to 107，644.14）. The peaks for prevalence， incidence， mortality， and DALYs occurred in the age groups of 55-59 years， 50-54 years， 85-89 years， and 55-59 years， respectively. From 1990 to 2021， the age-standardized prevalence， incidence， and DALY rates all showed a declining trend. However， driven by population aging， the absolute numbers of prevalent and incident cases as well as DALYs exhibited an upward trend. Further analysis revealed that age， period， and birth cohort effects all influenced both the incidence and DALYs. Projections indicate that by 2050， while the age-standardized rates across all age groups are expected to continue declining universally， the absolute burden will demonstrate age-specific divergence： a gradual decrease in populations under 60 years old， an initial increase followed by a decrease in the 60-69 age group， and a persistent rise in populations aged 70 and above.Conclusions China has made progress in POP prevention and control， yet the disease burden remains significant among the elderly. With the ongoing population aging， the disease burden in populations aged 60 and above is expected to further increase.
盆腔器官脱垂 / 疾病负担 / 患病 / 发病 / 死亡 / 伤残调整寿命年
pelvic organ prolapse / disease burden / prevalence / incidence / mortality / disability-adjusted life years
| [1] |
中华医学会妇产科学分会妇科盆底学组. 盆腔器官脱垂的中国诊治指南(2020年版)[J]. 中华妇产科杂志, 2020, 55(5):300-306.DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112141-20200106-00016.
|
| [2] |
|
| [3] |
Axial spondyloarthritis (ax-SpA) is a chronic inflammatory disease which causes a major deterioration of both physical and mental health. This research aimed to assess the prevalence of sexual dysfunction (SD), decreased quality of life (QoL), and depressive and anxiety symptoms in women with non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA). A cross-sectional study was performed, involving 60 sexually active women with nr-axSpA and an age-matched group of 60 healthy women. Data were gathered through patient records and three standardized tools: the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI), the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and the Short Form-36 (SF-36). Sexual dysfunction was found to be more prevalent in the nr-axSpA group (65% vs. 40%, p < 0.01). The mean FSFI result was substantially lower in patients than in healthy controls (19.71 ± 11.32 vs. 24.75 ± 8.36, p < 0.01) with significant differences of the scores in desire, arousal, lubrication and pain caused during intercourse. Women with nr-axSpA also experienced higher levels of anxiety (HADS-A: 8.52 ± 3.62 vs. 5.88 ± 3.83, p < 0.01) and depression (HADS-D: 6.27 ± 3.38 vs. 3.28 ± 2.77, p < 0.01). They also had lower physical (171.0 ± 72.9 vs. 301.5 ± 81.2, p < 0.01) and mental (204.9 ± 83.9 vs. 277.1 ± 74.5, p < 0.01) QoL scores. Women diagnosed with nr-axSpA are more prone to sexual dysfunction, increased anxiety and depression, and have a significantly worsened quality of life. The obtained results accentuate the necessity of addressing the patients' physical as well as their emotional issues through a comprehensive approach.© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
|
| [4] |
|
| [5] |
GBD 2021 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global incidence,prevalence,years lived with disability (YLDs),disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs),and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations,1990-2021:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021[J]. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440):2133-2161.DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00757-8.
|
| [6] |
GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations,1990-2021:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021[J]. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440):2162-2203.DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00933-4.
|
| [7] |
毛永康. 盆腔器官脱垂疾病ICD-10编码分析[J]. 中国病案, 2024, 25(03):35-38.
|
| [8] |
Trends in incidence or mortality rates over a specified time interval are usually described by the conventional annual per cent change (cAPC), under the assumption of a constant rate of change. When this assumption does not hold over the entire time interval, the trend may be characterized using the annual per cent changes from segmented analysis (sAPCs). This approach assumes that the change in rates is constant over each time partition defined by the transition points, but varies among different time partitions. Different groups (e.g. racial subgroups), however, may have different transition points and thus different time partitions over which they have constant rates of change, making comparison of sAPCs problematic across groups over a common time interval of interest (e.g. the past 10 years). We propose a new measure, the average annual per cent change (AAPC), which uses sAPCs to summarize and compare trends for a specific time period. The advantage of the proposed AAPC is that it takes into account the trend transitions, whereas cAPC does not and can lead to erroneous conclusions. In addition, when the trend is constant over the entire time interval of interest, the AAPC has the advantage of reducing to both cAPC and sAPC. Moreover, because the estimated AAPC is based on the segmented analysis over the entire data series, any selected subinterval within a single time partition will yield the same AAPC estimate--that is it will be equal to the estimated sAPC for that time partition. The cAPC, however, is re-estimated using data only from that selected subinterval; thus, its estimate may be sensitive to the subinterval selected. The AAPC estimation has been incorporated into the segmented regression (free) software Joinpoint, which is used by many registries throughout the world for characterizing trends in cancer rates.
|
| [9] |
This study aimed to characterize the temporal trends of chronic kidney disease (CKD) burden in China during 1990–2019, evaluate their age, period and cohort effects, and predict the disease burden for the next 10 years.
|
| [10] |
张敏, 徐杰茹, 陈磊, 等. 基于GBD数据分析1990-2019年中国胰腺癌发病趋势[J]. 现代预防医学, 2022, 49(07):1159-64+69.
|
| [11] |
|
| [12] |
|
| [13] |
徐芯语, 刘雨泉, 任培花, 等. 1990-2021年中国紧张性头痛疾病负担变化趋势分析及预测[J]. 数理医药学杂志, 2026, 39 (1):12-23.DOI:10.12173/j.issn.1004-4337.202505082.
|
| [14] |
|
| [15] |
赵秋红. 中国人口老龄化问题及应对策略[J]. 经济师, 2024,(4):38-40.
|
| [16] |
Aging is a biological process along with systemic and multiple organ dysfunction. It is more and more recognized that aging is a systemic disease instead of a single‐organ functional disorder. Systemic aging plays a profound role in multiple diseases including neurodegenerative diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and malignant diseases. Aged organs communicate with other organs and accelerate aging. Skeletal muscle, heart, bone marrow, skin, and liver communicate with each other through organ–organ crosstalk. The crosstalk can be mediated by metabolites including lipids, glucose, short‐chain fatty acids (SCFA), inflammatory cytokines, and exosomes. Metabolic disorders including hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, and hypercholesterolemia caused by chronic diseases accelerate hallmarks of aging. Systemic aging leads to the destruction of systemic hemostasis, causes the release of inflammatory cytokines, senescence‐associated secretory phenotype (SASP), and the imbalance of microbiota composition. Released inflammatory factors further aggregate senescence, which promotes the aging of multiple solid organs. Targeting senescence or delaying aging is emerging as a critical health strategy for solving age‐related diseases, especially in the old population. In the current review, we will delineate the mechanisms of organ crosstalk in systemic aging and age‐related diseases to provide therapeutic targets for delaying aging.
|
| [17] |
王倩, 郭玲宇, 刘娅, 等. 女性盆腔器官脱垂发病及病情进展的危险因素[J]. 山东医药, 2024, 64(18):50-53. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-266X.2024.18.011.
|
| [18] |
中华预防医学会体育运动与健康分会,中国女医师协会妇产科专业委员会,北京妇幼保健与优生优育协会. 基于妊娠期盆底功能障碍一级预防策略中国专家共识(2024年版)[J]. 中国实用妇科与产科杂志, 2024, 40(7):737-742. DOI:10.19538/j.fk2024070114.
|
| [19] |
刘萍, 白惠君, 陈春林. 应用数字化三维重建技术对女性盆腔器官功能性障碍疾病的精准诊断[J]. 中国实用妇科与产科杂志, 2026, 42(1):31-35.DOI:10.19538/j.fk2026010108.
|
| [20] |
| [21] |
利益冲突 所有作者均声明不存在利益冲突
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
