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Predictive factors of severe acute pancreatitis in children
FANG Yong-li, WU Jie, QIN Xiu-min, et al
2024, 39(10):
768-773.
DOI: 10.19538/j.ek2024100612
Objective To find valuable clinical indicators for severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)and establish a predictive model for SAP. Methods A total of 172 patients with acute pancreatitis diagnosed in Beijing Children's Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University from January 2016 to June 2022 were enrolled.According to the Chinese guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of pancreatitis(2019·Shenyang),the 172 patients were divided into SAP group(43 cases)and non-severe acute pancreatitis(NSAP)group(129 cases). The general data [gender,age,body mass index(BMI),onset time,etiology,signs,hospitalization time,prognosis],laboratory indicators[blood routine,C-reactive protein(CRP),blood biochemistry,coagulation function,procalcitonin,erythrocyte sedimentation rate,etc.] and imaging examination(pancreatic swelling,peripancreatic effusion,pleural effusion,ascites depth,etc.)of the two groups were compared. Compare the clinical indicators with statistically significant differences between the two groups.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was performed on these indicators to screen out independent factors for predicting SAP.A Logistic regression model was established and its ability to predict SAP was evaluated by plotting the ROC curve and calculating the area under the curve. Results In all the 172 patients,63 cases(36.6%)had improper diet,23 cases(13.4%)had pancreaticobiliary dysplasia,and 12 cases had gene mutations. Totally 170 cases(98.8%)had abdominal pain,and the SAP group was more likely to have fever,nausea,vomiting,abdominal distension and nervous system manifestations such as drowsiness and irritability.SAP group had higher values of white blood cell(WBC),neutrophil,lymphocyte,neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR),hemoglobin,and red blood cell distribution width(RDW)in blood routine;SAP group had higher blood urea nitrogen,creatinine,blood glucose,cholesterol,triglyceride,lactate dehydrogenase(LDH),alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase, and lower albumin and blood calcium levels in blood biochemistry;SAP group had longer PT and APTT,and higher D-dimer levels in coagulation function;SAP group had higher CRP and procalcitonin levels,and faster erythrocyte sedimentation rate in inflammatory indicators. There were statistically significant differences in the abnormal rates of pancreatic swelling,ascites depth,pleural effusion,and peripancreatic effusion between the two groups.The incidence of pancreatic pseudocyst was higher in the late stage in the SAP group.Logistic regression analysis showed that CRP,WBC,RDW and LDH were independent predictors of SAP,logit(P)=-19.151+0.043 CRP(mg/L)+0.295WBC(×109/L)+0.007LDH(U/L)+0.694RDW(%).The area under the curve(AUC)of the prediction model was 0.987(95% confidence interval was 0.973-1.000). Conclusion CRP,WBC,RDW and LDH can be used as independent predictors of SAP.The established model can predict the incidence of acute severe pancreatitis,which is helpful for clinicians to make early intervention and treatment.
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