A study on the value of clinical features and integrated inflammatory biomarkers in predicting preterm birth risk

ZANG Xiao-xiao, NIU Jian-min

Chinese Journal of Practical Gynecology and Obstetrics ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8) : 855-859.

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Chinese Journal of Practical Gynecology and Obstetrics ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8) : 855-859. DOI: 10.19538/j.fk2026080116

A study on the value of clinical features and integrated inflammatory biomarkers in predicting preterm birth risk

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Abstract

Objective To explore the predictive value of five machine learning models based on clinical characteristics and integrated inflammatory biomarkers for preterm birth,and to compare the predictive performance of different models in order to provide evidence for their clinical application. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted,including 1335 pregnant women who delivered in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at the Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022,with all types of preterm birth included (spontaneous preterm birth and indicated preterm birth). Totally 20 clinical characteristics,10 laboratory testing indexes,and 4 integrated inflammatory biomarkers(Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio,Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio,Aggregate Index of Systemic Inflammation,and Albumin-to-Lymphocyte Ratio)we screened out via literature review and clinical observation,and five machine learning models(Random Forest,XGBoost,Support Vector Machine,Lasso Regression,and Logistic Regression)were constructed. Hyperparameters were optimized via repeated 5-fold cross-validation,and the models were evaluated from 3 dimensions of discrimination,calibration,and clinical utility. Results The discrimination among the five models,the XGBoost model achieved the highest AUC(0.763),significantly higher than that of Logistic Regression(AUC=0.683)(P<0.05),followed by Random Forest(AUC=0.730),Support Vector Machine(AUC=0.707),and Lasso Regression(AUC=0.696). In terms of calibration,the XGBoost model had the lowest Brier score(0.182),indicating the best calibration performance. Decision curve analysis showed that the XGBoost model had the highest standardized net benefit around the 20% risk threshold,indicating significant clinical value in practice.After adding integrated inflammatory biomarkers,the AUC of the model decreased from 0.763 to 0.730(ΔAUC=-0.034,P=0.0033),which did not improve predictive performance of the model. Conclusions All five machine learning models constructed in this study can be applied to preterm birth risk prediction, among which the XGBoost model demonstrates the best performance across the three dimensions of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Owing to its extremely high specificity (97.2%), it can serve as a tool for secondary confirmation and refined risk stratification in high-risk populations, rather than as a first-line universal screening tool. Integrated inflammatory biomarkers failed to provide incremental predictive value in the population included in this study.

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preterm birth / integrated inflammatory biomarkers / machine learning models / predictive models / model comparison

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ZANG Xiao-xiao , NIU Jian-min. A study on the value of clinical features and integrated inflammatory biomarkers in predicting preterm birth risk[J]. Chinese Journal of Practical Gynecology and Obstetrics. 2026, 42(8): 855-859 https://doi.org/10.19538/j.fk2026080116

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There has been no measurable change in global preterm birth rates in the past decade, in any region. A handful of countries have reduced their preterm birth rates, but only marginally (0.5 percentage points annually), and there has been little progress in availability of preterm birth data globally. An estimated 13.4 million (95% credible interval (CrI): [12.3, 15.2 million]) newborns were preterm or "born too soon" in 2020, 9.9% (95% CrI: [9.1, 11.2%]) of births worldwide. Preterm birth complications remained the top cause of under-5 child mortality globally in 2022, accounting for about 1 million neonatal deaths, similar to figures a decade ago. More encouragingly, some countries have improved data systems to better capture preterm birth information and advancements have been made in gestational age measurement, highlighting targeted efforts towards improving data for action. This paper is part of a series based on the report "Born too soon: decade of action on preterm birth".Preventing preterm birth is a critical priority and could be accelerated by focusing on context-specific risk factors, and addressing spontaneous and provider-initiated preterm births, including non-medically indicated caesarean sections. Effective care can prevent 900 000 deaths from complications of preterm birth, particularly among those born before 32 weeks' gestation. Stillbirths should be included in data, policies and programmes relating to preterm birth. Most stillbirths occur preterm (an estimated 74.3%) and have a profound, long-lasting impact on families. Addressing stillbirths is essential for reducing the overall burden of preterm birth and minimising loss of human capital.It is important that the data are available and of high quality, plus are used to drive action. We focus on three pivots to improve in the next decade: (1) counting every baby everywhere, including those stillborn, and accurately recording gestational age and birthweight; (2) strengthening national data systems to improve the availability of individual-level data for action, including quality improvement in maternity wards and small and sick newborn care units, plus follow-up for long-term health outcomes including disabilities; and (3) using data to strengthen shared accountability at all levels, from the community to global levels.© 2025. The Author(s).
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