Analysis of factors related to the success of external cephalic version and the establishment of line chart prediction model

WU Zhi-wei, WANG Xue-zhuo, XIAO Yun-shan, ZHANG Xue-qin

Chinese Journal of Practical Gynecology and Obstetrics ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7) : 760-763.

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Chinese Journal of Practical Gynecology and Obstetrics ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7) : 760-763. DOI: 10.19538/j.fk2025070120

Analysis of factors related to the success of external cephalic version and the establishment of line chart prediction model

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Abstract

Objective To analyse the influencing factors related to the success of external cephalic version,and to construct a line chart model and verify the predictive efficacy. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted which included 230 pregnant women who underwent external cephalic version at Women and Children's Hospital Affiliated to Xiamen University from April 2018 to October 2022,of which 165 cases were successful and 65 failed. The cases were divided into training set and validation set according to the ratio of 7∶3. The clinical data and preoperative ultrasound indexes of the study subjects were collected,and the influencing factors of the success of external cephalic version were analysed by logistic regression. The line chart model was then established by R 4.2.3 software. The C-index and standard calibration curve were used to assess the efficacy of the model,and the decision curve was used to assess the clinical practicality of the model. Results Logistic regression analysis showed that frank breech,anterior placenta,amniotic fluid index <14.10 cm,and primiparity were the risk factors for the success of external cephalic version [odds ratio (OR) values being 0.173,0.170,1.335,and 1.975,P<0.05]. A line chart model was constructed based on the above influencing factors. The C-index of the training set was 0.838(95%CI 0.775-0.900),and the area under the ROC curve was 0.815;the C-index of the validation set was 0.822(95%CI 0.759-0.884) and the area under the ROC curve was 0.780. The model curves were closer to the ideal curves,and separated from the extreme curves. Conclusion The line chart prediction model based on placental position,breech presentation type,amniotic fluid index,and the number of deliveries has high efficacy and good clinical practicality,and it can be used as a tool for screening and assessing the population fit for external cephalic version.

Key words

external cephalic version / line chart / prediction

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WU Zhi-wei , WANG Xue-zhuo , XIAO Yun-shan , et al. Analysis of factors related to the success of external cephalic version and the establishment of line chart prediction model[J]. Chinese Journal of Practical Gynecology and Obstetrics. 2025, 41(7): 760-763 https://doi.org/10.19538/j.fk2025070120

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To create a prediction model for external cephalic version (ECV) success using objective patient characteristics.This retrospective study included pregnant individuals of at least 18 years of age with a nonanomalous, singleton gestation who underwent an ECV attempt between 2006 and 2016 at a single quaternary care hospital. Variables assessed included maternal age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), parity, fetal sex, gestational age, estimated fetal weight, type of fetal malpresentation, placental location, and amniotic fluid volume. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the association of patient characteristics with ECV success. Estimated odds ratios and corresponding 95% CIs were calculated for each variable, and backward elimination and bootstrapping were used to find a parsimonious model for ECV success with the highest discriminatory capacity (as determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]). This model was evaluated with a calibration curve across deciles of success.A total of 1,138 individuals underwent an ECV attempt and were included in this analysis. The overall ECV success frequency was 40.6%. Factors significantly associated with ECV success were maternal age, parity, placental location, estimated fetal weight, and type of fetal malpresentation. A final model with BMI, parity, placental location, and type of fetal malpresentation had the highest AUC (0.667 [95% CI 0.634-0.701]), resulted in good calibration, and is represented by the following equation: 1/[1+e-x] where x=1.1726-0.0314 (BMI)-0.9299 (nulliparity)+1.0218 (transverse or oblique presentation at ECV)-0.5113 (anterior placenta). An interactive version of this equation was created and can be accessed at www.ecvcalculator.com.A prediction model that estimates the probability of ECV success was created and internally validated. This model incorporates easily obtainable and objective patient factors known before ECV and may be used in decision making and patient counseling about ECV.Copyright © 2021 by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
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To systematically review the medical literature reporting on ultrasound factors that can be predictive for the outcome of an attempt at external cephalic version (ECV).MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched. Studies reporting on potential ultrasound prognosticators and ECV success rates that allowed construction of a 2x2 table were selected.We selected 37 primary articles reporting on 7709 women. Posterior placental location (odds ratio (OR), 1.9; 95% CI, 1.5-2.4), complete breech position (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.9-2.8) and an amniotic fluid index>10 (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.5-2.1) were predictors of successful ECV.Success of an ECV attempt is associated with ultrasound parameters such as fetal position, amniotic fluid and placental location. This knowledge can be used to develop a prognostic model to predict successful ECV.Copyright (c) 2008 ISUOG.
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External cephalic version (ECV) success correlates with numerous maternal and pregnancy factors. A prior study developed an ECV success prediction model based on body mass index, parity, placental location, and fetal presentation. We performed external validation of this model using a retrospective cohort of ECV procedures from a separate institution between July 2016 and December 2021. Four hundred thirty-four ECV procedures were performed, with a 44.4% success rate (95% CI 39.8-49.2%), which was similar to the derivation cohort (40.6%, 95% CI 37.7-43.5%, P =.16). There were significant differences in patients and practices between cohorts, including the rate of neuraxial anesthesia (83.5% derivation cohort vs 10.4% our cohort, P <.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.75), which was similar to that in the derivation cohort (AUROC 0.67, 95% CI 0.63-0.70). These results suggest the published ECV prediction model's performance is generalizable outside the original study institution.Copyright © 2023 by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
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To determine the factors associated with the success rate of external cephalic version (ECV) for breech presentation at term.A prospective analysis of 500 ECV maneuvers. The variables maternal age, maternal weight, body mass index, previous cesarean delivery, gestational age, parity, amount of amniotic fluid, placental location, and type of breech were studied using logistic regression analysis.The success rate of ECV was 52.2% (n=261). The variables significantly associated with success were parity, placental location, amount of amniotic fluid, and type of breech (P<0.05). A parity of 2 had a 3.74-times higher probability of success than nulliparity (95% CI, 2.37-5.90); a posterior placenta increased the success rate by 2.85 times compared with an anterior placenta (95% CI, 1.87-4.36); and double footling breech presentation had a 2.77-times higher success rate compared with a frank breech presentation (95% CI, 1.16-6.62). The area under the ROC curve showed a predictive ability of 73.6% (95% CI, 69.2%-77.9%) for these 3 variables.Parity, placental location, amount of amniotic fluid, and type of breech presentation were associated with the success rate of ECV.Copyright © 2010 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Funding

Key Medical and Health Project of Xiamen Municipality(3502Z20191102)
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