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应用机器学习建立产后女性压力性尿失禁风险预测模型
杨晴晴, 朱珏, 汪期明, 杨名洁, 钱苗红, 张晶
中国实用妇科与产科杂志 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7) : 734-737.
PDF(1725 KB)
PDF(1725 KB)
应用机器学习建立产后女性压力性尿失禁风险预测模型
Application of machine learning to establish a risk prediction model for postpartum women with stress urinary incontinence
目的 探讨应用机器学习构建产后女性压力性尿失禁(SUI)风险预测模型并内部验证,为早期防治提供依据。方法 纳入2022年10月至2023年6月宁波大学附属妇女儿童医院516例产后42d盆底筛查产妇(SUI病例组82例,对照组434例),提取年龄、分娩方式、产次、盆底肌电生理数据、盆底超声指标等影响因素,采用随机森林、支持向量机等5种机器学习算法建模,通过十折交叉验证比较模型效能。结果 产后SUI发生率15.89%(82/516)。随机森林模型表现最优,训练集F1值1.000、AUC 1.000,验证集F1值0.776、AUC 0.837。关键影响因素包括盆底肌电生理参数(紧张收缩、耐力收缩等阶段)、年龄、产次、会阴损伤、体重指数(BMI)等,其中盆底肌电参数对分类贡献最高。结论 随机森林模型预测效能最佳,盆底肌电生理参数与产后 SUI 强相关。该模型可辅助医务人员精准评估风险,指导早期个性化康复干预,如凯格尔运动、生物反馈治疗等,为产后SUI防治提供新工具。
Objective To develop and internally validate a risk prediction model for postpartum stress urinary incontinence (SUI) in women using machine learning, aiming to provide evidence for early prevention. Methods This retrospective study included 516 postpartum women who underwent pelvic floor screening at 42 days after delivery at Ningbo University Women and Children's Hospital from October 2022 to June 2023 (a case group of 82 cases and a control group of 434 cases). The influencing factors were collected, including age, delivery mode, parity, electromyographic(EMG) data of pelvic floor and pelvic floor ultrasound data. Five machine learning algorithms such as random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) were used to build predictive models. Model performance was evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation. Results The overall incidence of postpartum SUI was 15.89%. Among all models, the random forest model demonstrated the best performance, with an F1 score of 1.000 and AUC of 1.000 in the training set, and an F1 score of 0.776 and AUC of 0.837 in the validation set. The key influencing factors included pelvic floor EMG parameters (e.g., intense contraction and endurance contraction phases), age, parity, perineal injury, and BMI. Pelvic floor EMG parameters contributed the most to classification performance. Conclusions The random forest model shows the best predictive ability. Pelvic floor EMG parameters are strongly associated with postpartum SUI. This model offers a valuable tool for clinicians to accurately assess individual risk and guide early rehabilitation intervention, such as Kegel exercises and biofeedback therapy, which provides new tools for the prevention and treatment of postpartum SUI.
产后女性压力性尿失禁 / 机器学习 / 随机森林 / 模型
postpartum stress urinary incontinence in women / machine learning / random forest / model
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Adiposity has been associated with elevated risk of urinary incontinence in epidemiological studies; however, the strength of the association has differed between studies.
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The objectives of this study were to determine the incidence of UI in a large cohort of primiparous women before and during pregnancy and over the course of 30-months postpartum, and to identify risk factors for UI during and after pregnancy.Nulliparous women aged 18-35 years with singleton pregnancies were interviewed in their third trimester and asked about urinary incontinence before and during pregnancy (n = 3001). After delivery these women were interviewed at 1, 6, 12, 18, 24 and 30-months postpartum and asked about urinary incontinence occurring in the month prior to each interview. Multivariable logistic regression models identified risk factors for UI during pregnancy and during the follow-up period.Overall, 4% reported having urinary incontinence before pregnancy and 36.8% during pregnancy. The strongest predictor of urinary incontinence during pregnancy was urinary incontinence before pregnancy (adjusted OR 13.11, 95% CI 7.43-23.13). Among the women with no subsequent pregnancies, the rate of urinary incontinence increased from 12.5% at 6-months postpartum to 27.4% at 30-months postpartum, 52.1% reported UI at one or more postpartum data collection stages, and the strongest predictors of postpartum UI were UI before pregnancy (adjusted OR 3.95 (95% CI 1.60-9.75) and during pregnancy (adjusted OR 4.36, 95% CI 3.24-5.87).Our findings suggest that primiparous women who report UI before and during pregnancy should be monitored for the continuation or worsening of UI over the course of the first 2-3 years postpartum, and treatment options discussed.
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The objective was to describe the prevalence of urinary incontinence in pregnant and postpartum women in the Democratic Republic of Congo and to identify factors associated with urinary incontinence (UI) in these populations.We interviewed eligible women who sought prenatal or postnatal reproductive health clinic consultations over a 2-year period. Interviews collected information about demographics, obstetric history, and urinary incontinence symptoms, as well as the impact on the quality of life, via a validated questionnaire. Descriptive analyses compared women with and without urinary incontinence and compared characteristics of UI, stratified by pregnancy status. Logistic regression identified factors associated with UI among the entire sample, pregnant women, and postpartum women.Overall, 268 out of 880 women had UI (30.5%); the prevalence was 33.4% (168 out of 503) among pregnant women and 26.5% (100 out of 377) among postpartum women, p = 0.03. Women who were pregnant were significantly more likely to experience stress incontinence (p = 0.01) and less likely to report moderate or large amounts of leakage (p = 0.002). A history of macrosomia and being currently pregnant were associated with UI in the entire sample (p < 0.05). Among pregnant women, the risk of UI decreased with increasing gestational age and increased with a history of macrosomia (p ≤ 0.01). Among postpartum women, a history of macrosomia and prior episiotomy were associated with UI (p < 0.05).Urinary incontinence is prevalent in pregnant and postpartum women in the Democratic Republic of Congo and is associated with a history of macrosomia. Efforts should focus on screening, evaluation, and treatment.
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To determine the frequency of postpartum stress urinary incontinence (SUI) in women undergoing vaginal delivery or elective cesarean section and to investigate the sociodemographic determinants of SUI in a sample of Iranian patients.This prospective cohort study was performed during a 1-year period from 2014 to 2015 including 286 healthy nulliparous women in the third trimester of pregnancy without prepregnancy urinary incontinence. Participants were categorized based on the mode of delivery, i.e., vaginal delivery (n=148) and elective cesarean section (n=138). SUI was evaluated in all the participants before delivery and at 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months after delivery using a previously validated Persian questionnaire. The frequency of postpartum SUI was recorded in both study groups and was compared between them. We also determined the sociodemographic determinants of SUI.Baseline characteristics were comparable. The frequency of postpartum SUI was significantly higher in vaginal delivery than in cesarean section after a 1-month (p<0.001), 6-month (p<0.001), and 12-month (p<0.001) period. Age was found to be associated with increased frequency of postpartum SUI in both vaginal delivery (p=0.021, r=0.286) and cesarean section groups (p=0.043, r=0.125). SUI was associated with tool-assisted vaginal delivery (p<0.001) and episiotomy (p<0.001). The birth weight was positively correlated with increased frequency of postpartum SUI in both vaginal delivery (p=0.011, r=0.546) and cesarean section (p=0.034, r=0.311). Patients with SUI had a significantly higher body mass index than the normal individuals (p=0.038). SUI was associated with lower income (p=0.028) and lower neighborhood residence (p=0.033).Vaginal delivery is associated with a twofold increased risk of postpartum SUI in primipara women compared with elective cesarean section. Age and birth weight are the main risk factors of postpartum SUI in both modes of delivery. Tool-assisted delivery and episiotomy were determined as the risk factors of postpartum SUI in vaginal delivery.Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC.
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The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for urinary incontinence in middle-aged women.We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 83,355 Nurses' Health Study II participants. Since 1989, women have provided health information on mailed questionnaires; in 2001, at the ages 37 to 54 years, information on urinary incontinence was requested. We examined adjusted odds ratios of incontinence using logistic regression.Forty-three percent of the women reported incontinence. After adjustment, black (odds ratio, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.40-0.60) and Asian-American women (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.46-0.72) were at reduced odds of severe incontinence compared with white women. Increased age, body mass index, parity, current smoking, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and hysterectomy all were associated positively with incontinence. Women who were aged 50 to 54 years had 1.81 times the odds of severe incontinence compared with women who were <40 years old (95% CI, 1.66-1.97); women with a body mass index of > or =30 kg/m2 had 3.10 times the odds of severe incontinence compared with a body mass index of 22 to 24 kg/m2 (95% CI, 2.91-3.30).Urinary incontinence is highly prevalent among these middle-aged women. Potential risk factors include age, race/ethnicity, body mass index, parity, smoking, diabetes mellitus, and hysterectomy.
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