中国实用儿科杂志

中国实用儿科杂志

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川崎病发生冠状动脉病变危险因素的Logistic回归分析

张伟，李秋，赵晓东，唐雪梅，王晓刚，王墨，吴道奇，欧茜，杨锡强   

  1. 重庆医科大学附属儿童医院肾脏免疫科，重庆 400014
  • 收稿日期:2005-08-10 修回日期:2005-11-20 出版日期:2006-01-06 发布日期:2006-01-06

Logistic regression analysis of risk factors of coronary artery lesion secondary to Kawasaki disease.

Zhang Wei,Li Qiu,Zhao Xiaodong,et al.   

  1. Department of Nephroimmunology,Children's Hospital Affiliated to Chongqing University of Medical Sciences,Chongqing 400014,China
  • Received:2005-08-10 Revised:2005-11-20 Online:2006-01-06 Published:2006-01-06

摘要： 目的探讨川崎病(KD)发生冠状动脉病变(CAL)的危险因素。方法回顾性分析2000年1月至2004年12月期间942例住院KD患儿的临床资料，对发生CAL(170例)和未发生CAL(772例)的病例进行组间对照研究，对13种影响CAL发生的因素进行Logistic回归分析。结果Logistic回归分析结果表明，热程大于10d(X1)的OR值为1.203(95%CI=1.104~1.312,P<0.001)、血红蛋白(Hb)小于100g/L(X2)的OR值为0.658(95%CI=0.472~0.995,P<0.05)。建立KD发生CAL的危险因素主效应模型是Logit(P)=β0(-2.995)+0.185X1+(-0.378)X2(χ2＝16.920，P=0.031)。结论热程大于10d、Hb<100g/L是KD发生CAL的高危因素。

关键词: 川崎病, 冠状动脉病变, 危险因素, Logistic模型

Abstract: AbstractObjectiveTo explore risk factors of coronary artery lesion(CAL) caused by Kawasaki disease(KD).MethodsClinical features of total 942 patients with KD hospitalized during Jan,2000 to Dec,2004 were reviewed and analyzed.All cases with or without CAL were analyzed by casecontrol study and Logistic regression analysis for 13 influence factors of CAL was made.ResultsThe results of Logistic regression analysis indicated that the odds ratio of fever lasting over 10 days(X1) was 1.203(95% CI =1.104~1.312,P<0.001),and the odds ratio of ferrohemoglobin(Hb)lower than 100g/L(X2) was 0.658(95% CI =0.472~0.995,P<0.05).The logistic regress equation of CAL risk factors was Logit(P)=β0(-2.995)+0.185X1 +(-0.378)X2(χ2=16.920，P=0.031).ConclusionLonglasting fever(>10d) and low Hb (<100g/L) are the high risk factors of CAL in Kawasaki disease.

Key words: Logistic models , Coronary artery lesion, Risk factors